Psychohistory 2.0

  5. Building the framework for a simulation. Before we start to populate our simulation with agents, we should understand how the world works. Economists have produced innumerable theories about the laws that govern societies – often idealizing and simplifying the world to be able to express them in simple equations. I would like to see another approach, using machine learning to deduce how the economy functions. Take a country with good statistics and describe every county or municipality (except a few that are used to check the models' predictions). Begin with basic parameters like demographics (number of inhabitants, age, born and dead last year, age of death, moving in and out, occupations, distribution of income, unemployment) and production (agriculture, natural resources, industry). From there it's easy to find direct correlations between parameters (we don't need to worry about causation). There are also methods to find complex correlations and patterns. When...

  4. Looking at a basic personality trait. In my last post I described how we need to define relevant factors that predict how an individual behaves. Let's examine one of those. The needs or wants in Maslow's hierarchy of needs, are usually not called personality traits, because they are assumed to be pretty much universal. I want to challenge that assumption and instead propose that differences in how strong these needs are, affects many personality traits. All humans (and animals) seek pleasure and want to avoid pain. But we differ in where we draw the line for what pain/gain ratio is acceptaable. Some are more risk-averse than others. They prefer to play it safe even though that will reduce the reward. So what Maslow calls the need to feel safe, isn't equally strong in everyone. How does this difference affect traits and behaviours? As a representative for the more risk-averse, we can take Epicurus. His life philosophy was to avoid pain, fear and stress - then you ...

  3. How do you describe a person? We need to be able to calculate an agent's behaviour from a limited set of quantifiable parameters. So how do you define a character's personality? It's the fact that we are different, that creates the problems we have in society, but it also creates positive dynamic forces and makes life interesting. This is what the field of psychology is all about, and I must say I think they have failed to accomplish the fundamental task of figuring out how we differ from each other and how much. A popular but rather meaningless pursuit, is to divide people into types. That's a too simplistic approach. Let me try to identify the many different layers of our personality that affects how we live. First we have physiological needs – for food, sleep, warmth – and they are basically the same for everyone, so they are not good measurements to define an individual. At the next level we have psychological needs, which differ a little more from person ...

2. Where to start? Where to even start such an ambitious project? The task is daunting, but we can at least begin to think about it and share ideas on how it could be possible. It might take ten or it might take fifty years before we will get useful results, but the longer we're not even contemplating it, the longer we're postponing it. It seems natural to start small and simplified, and then increase the size and complexity step by step. The calibration of new elements and parameters will have to be automated in a machine learning way. First steps Program a simulated character with a limited amount of time to sleep, work, eat and enjoy leasure time. Spending time at work reduces the time it can spend on hobbies, but gives it the money to do more fun stuff and eat more delicious food. Too little sleep decreases the value of the time it's awake. If we translate everything it does and consumes into a common unit of value (a utility function), optimization of its quality ...